#142: Why One Kavanaugh May be Worth Three with the PIE

July 24, 2018

I know a number of N.Y. Republicans who simply don’t vote because they believe, with some good grounds, that their votes are worthless. They believe this because N.Y.C. is overwhelmingly Democrat and so a person voting Republican is just spitting in the wind. I call this the “Political Impotence Effect,” or the PIE. The PIE is evident in many places across the country, in both red and blue states.

That’s unfortunate, but there’s silver lining to the PIE for the SCOTUS.

The make-up of the court is currently (C=Conservative, P=Progressive):

John Roberts (Chief) (63) C

Clarence Thomas (70) C

Samuel Alito (68) C

Neil Gorsuch (50) C

Kennedy/Brett Kavanaugh (K: 53) C

Elena Kagan (58) P

Ruth Bader Ginsberg (85) P

Stephen Breyer (79) P

Sonya Sotomayor (64) P

Of course, adding Kavanaugh creates a five to four majority for the Conservatives, that’s obvious and that’s very good, but there’s another factor to consider.

The two oldest members, Ginsberg and Breyer (85 and 79 respectively) become in effect lame ducks with Kavanaugh’s addition (because of the Conservative majority). They become impotent on the court, they’re in exactly the same position as Republicans in N.Y.. And what do those Republicans do? They leave the fray: they do not vote. That’s the PIE.

There have been rumors for some time that Breyer would like to retire. Perhaps realizing that he is no longer able to affect SCOTUS decisions, he will make that move sooner rather than later. Because he’s having some of the PIE and there’s another two years in Trump’s current term, and it seems very likely that 1) the Republicans will hold the senate, and 2) that Trump will get a second term. With all that, Breyer would have to wait till he’s 85 before he might have a Democrat president to replace him. That’s a lot of years of impotence for the mere chance of being replaced by another impotent progressive.

And while Ginsberg seems to want to stay forever, perhaps the departure of Breyer (with the addition of yet another Trump originalist to the court) would demoralize her enough to hasten her own (vastly overdue) departure. And that’s the rest of the PIE. Yum!